If there are faithless electors in the 2024 election, who will they vote for?
➕
Plus
19
Ṁ1745
Jan 1
69%
Other
6%
nobody
6%
Nikki Haley
5%
Vivek Ramaswamy
5%
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
4%
Bernie Sanders
3%
Ron DeSantis
1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Resolves in proportion to the recipients’ vote share. (In 2016, this would have resolved 3/7 Colin Powell and 1/7 each to John Kasich, Ron Paul, Bernie Sanders, and Faith Spotted Eagle). Resolves “nobody” in proportion to the number of abstentions.

Only considers faithless electors whose votes are not voided. Resolves N/A if no faithless electors.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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In https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector#List_of_faithless_electors there are a few incidents in which a faithless elector intentionally abstained, so I'm adding a "nobody" option as well

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Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

I assume you mean RFK Jr., not RFK? (Edited your option)

(In 2016, this would have resolved 43% Colin Powell and 14% each to John Kasich, Ron Paul, Bernie Sanders, and Faith Spotted Eagle (one of which selected at random I would round up to 15)).

No need - you don't resolve multiple choice markets to strict percentages, you resolve them to ratios, so you can just resolve each to the number of votes they get.

@NcyRocks Oh wow, they added this? Cool! I’ll edit description

@Conflux This has always been the way that multiple choice markets have been resolved, though? They just ask for a number, which can be anything.

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