If Trump loses the 2024 election and is able to leave the country and live abroad, will he do so by end of 2026?
Standard
22
Ṁ14752027
23%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves N/A if he wins. Also resolves N/A if he is incarcerated, under house arrest, dead, or otherwise unable to leave the United States.
If the question of whether he’s officially transitioned to living outside the country is subjective, I will use best judgement, or defer to Matt Glassman (whose post this market is based on) if he weighs in.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
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1,000
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