Will Trump actually nominate a Libertarian to his Cabinet if elected?
Basic
30
Ṁ1.8kNov 6
27%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Trump tried to win over the crowd by pledging to include a Libertarian in his Cabinet, but many in the crowd hissed in disbelief.
Resolves YES if Trump wins the 2024 election and nominates a registered Libertarian to any Cabinet-level position (even if the Senate rejects them). Resolves NO if he leaves office without doing so.
If Trump loses the election, resolves PROB to the average of the market probability in the week before Election Day. (Hopefully this should be fairly resistant to manipulation.)
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Who will be the Republican nominee for vice president? (Trump VP)
If Trump is the Republican Nominee, who will be his running mate?
Who will be Trump's running mate if he is the Republican nominee?
Who will be Trump's VP ?
Will Trump's VP pick be a white male?
59% chance
Will David Sacks hold a U.S. Cabinet-level position (including “acting” ) in Donald Trump's administration during 2025?
25% chance
Will Trump’s VP pick be a white man?
57% chance
Will Trump’s running mate be female?
10% chance
Who will be Trump's running mate?