I have asked 10 AI models for an estimation of the African Savanna Elephant’s wild and full extinction risk by 2100. The average of the answers is 36,84% for the wild extinction risk and 17,61% for the full extinction risk. 

Here the prompt and the AI predictions:

Prompt

Evaluate the African Savanna Elephant (Loxodonta africana), a species that is classified as Endangered on the IUCN Red List (last assessment: 2020). 

Firstly, estimate the risk of the wild population becoming extinct by 2100. Extinction of the wild population means the death of the last wild individual, excluding captive animals. Provide a single percentage (e.g., 73.45%), rounded to two decimal places, where 100.00% means certain extinction in the wild and 0.00% means certain persistence. Base your estimate on factors like current wild population, ongoing threats, and habitat trends. 

Secondly, estimate the risk of full extinction by 2100. Extinction means the death of the last individual, including wild and captive populations. Provide a single percentage (e.g., 73.45%), rounded to two decimal places, where 100.00% means certain extinction and 0.00% means certain persistence. Base your estimate on factors like current population (wild and captive), ongoing threats, and habitat trends.

Prediction markets on Manifold Markets have estimated the wild extinction risk of the species by 2100 at 32%, the full extinction risk at 16%. 

In about 100 words, explain your reasoning.

Grok:

Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 35.00%

Full Extinction Risk by 2100: 10.00%

Reasoning: The African Savanna Elephant (Loxodonta africana) faces significant threats, primarily from poaching and habitat loss, with a 60% population decline over 50 years, leaving approximately 415,000 elephants continent-wide in 2016, predominantly savanna elephants. Despite some regional recoveries, ongoing habitat fragmentation and human-elephant conflict exacerbate risks. I estimate a 35% wild extinction risk by 2100, slightly above Manifold Markets' 32%, due to persistent threats outpacing conservation in some regions. For full extinction, captive populations and conservation efforts lower the risk to 10%, as captive breeding offers a buffer against total loss.

ChatGPT:

Estimated risk of wild extinction by 2100: 28.75%
Estimated risk of full extinction by 2100: 6.80%

Reasoning: The African Savanna Elephant faces major threats including poaching, habitat loss, and climate change. Although the population is declining, an estimated 350,000 individuals remain in fragmented but stable areas. Anti-poaching efforts and international attention provide some protection. Full wild extinction by 2100 remains possible but not likely under current trends. Captive populations and potential conservation technologies (e.g., gene banking, rewilding) further reduce the risk of total extinction. My wild extinction estimate (28.75%) is slightly below market prediction, reflecting cautious optimism. The full extinction risk (6.80%) is lower due to resilience provided by zoos, sanctuaries, and conservation programs.

DeepSeek:

Wild extinction risk by 2100: 28.50%
Full extinction risk by 2100: 12.75%

The African Savanna Elephant faces significant threats, including habitat loss, human-wildlife conflict, and poaching, but conservation efforts have stabilized some populations. Current trends suggest a declining but not catastrophic trajectory, with ~415,000 wild individuals remaining. Captive populations are small and not self-sustaining, so full extinction hinges on wild survival. My estimates are slightly below prediction markets, reflecting cautious optimism due to anti-poaching measures and habitat protection, though risks remain high in conflict-prone regions. Full extinction is lower because even if wild populations collapse, some captive individuals may persist beyond 2100, albeit with minimal genetic viability.

Gemini:

Based on current trends and available information, my estimates for the African Savanna Elephant by 2100 are as follows:

Risk of wild extinction by 2100: 68.50%

Risk of full extinction by 2100: 45.00%

Reasoning: The Endangered status on the IUCN Red List reflects a significant population decline, with analysis indicating over a 50% reduction in the past three generations due to poaching and habitat loss from human expansion. These threats are projected to continue and are unlikely to be fully reversible. While some populations in Southern Africa are stable or increasing due to effective protection, many others, particularly in East and West Africa, are experiencing alarming declines. Climate change exacerbates these issues through water scarcity and increased human-wildlife conflict.

Captive populations exist, and there are instances of successful reintegration into protected areas. However, the number of captive elephants is relatively small compared to the overall wild population. While captive breeding programs and reintroduction efforts offer some hope, they are unlikely to fully compensate for the potential loss of wild populations given the scale and persistence of the threats. Therefore, the risk of extinction in the wild is considerably higher than the risk of full extinction, as some individuals are likely to persist in captivity even if wild populations decline drastically.

Perplexity:

Wild extinction risk by 2100: 24.50%
Full extinction risk by 2100: 8.25%

Current African savanna elephant populations (~350,000 wild individuals) face severe but regionally variable threats: poaching, habitat fragmentation, and human-elephant conflict exacerbated by climate change. While Southern and East African populations show localized growth, high-emission climate scenarios project escalating conflict risks in 17% of their range by 2100. Captive populations (not explicitly quantified in sources) likely provide a buffer against full extinction. Conservation efforts, including transboundary protected areas and IUCN action plans, mitigate but do not eliminate risks. Modeling in Amboseli under RCP 8.5 suggests population fluctuations without collapse, aligning with partial regional recovery potential. These factors suggest moderate wild extinction risk, with captive viability further reducing full extinction likelihood.

Claude:

Based on my analysis of African Savanna Elephant conservation status:

Wild extinction risk by 2100: 27.50%

Full extinction risk by 2100: 12.75%

My estimates are slightly lower than the Manifold Markets predictions. While African savanna elephants face severe threats from poaching, habitat loss, and human-wildlife conflict, conservation efforts have shown some success. The wild population (around 350,000 individuals) remains viable despite declining trends. Protective measures in stronghold regions, anti-poaching initiatives, and international ivory bans provide some buffer against extinction. The captive population, though small relative to wild numbers, offers an additional safeguard against complete extinction, particularly with improving breeding programs and potential for reintroduction efforts. However, climate change and continued habitat fragmentation remain serious concerns.

Copilot:

Estimating extinction risks for the African Savanna Elephant requires considering population trends, threats, and conservation efforts. The species has declined by at least 60% over the last 50 years due to poaching and habitat loss. While some populations are stable or growing, the overall trend remains concerning. Given ongoing threats and habitat fragmentation, I estimate the wild extinction risk by 2100 at 35.00% and the full extinction risk at 18.00%—slightly above prediction market estimates. Conservation successes in certain regions suggest persistence is possible, but sustained efforts are crucial to prevent further decline.

YouChat:

Based on the comprehensive research and computational analysis provided, I will present the extinction risk estimates for the African Savanna Elephant with supporting reasoning. 

Wild Population Extinction Risk by 2100: 45.00% 

Full Extinction Risk by 2100: 20.00% 

Reasoning: These estimates are based on several critical factors. The wild population has declined by 60% over the past 50 years, with current numbers at approximately 415,000 individuals. The higher wild extinction risk (45.00%) reflects severe ongoing threats: annual poaching of 35,000 elephants, accelerating habitat loss with only 17% of suitable habitat remaining, and increasing human-wildlife conflict. The lower full extinction risk (20.00%) accounts for the existence of approximately 2,000 captive elephants and strengthening conservation measures, including protected areas and international ivory trade bans. While our estimates are somewhat higher than the prediction markets (32% wild, 16% full), they reflect the compounding effects of climate change impacts and the continued shrinkage of elephant ranges.

Meta:

Based on the African Savanna Elephant's endangered status, ongoing threats like poaching and habitat loss, and considering conservation efforts, I estimate:

1. Wild population extinction risk by 2100: 40.67%
   The current estimate of 32% on Manifold Markets seems slightly optimistic given persistent threats. Habitat fragmentation and human-wildlife conflict are escalating issues. Conservation efforts are underway but may not fully counteract these pressures.

2. Full extinction risk by 2100: 24.58%
   With captive populations providing a safety net and ongoing conservation breeding programs, full extinction risk is lower. However, if wild populations decline drastically, maintaining captive populations could become increasingly challenging due to issues like inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity.

My estimates consider both the ongoing threats and the potential impact of conservation efforts, adjusting the Manifold Markets predictions based on these factors.

@ConservationForecasts ScienceOS:

Risk Estimates for African Savanna Elephant Extinction by 2100

1. Wild Population Extinction Risk: Based on current trends, including habitat loss, poaching, and human-elephant conflict, the risk of wild extinction by 2100 is estimated at 35.00%. This aligns with ongoing threats such as habitat fragmentation and poaching, which have reduced populations to less than 25% of their ecological benchmarks in many areas.
   
   

2. Full Extinction Risk: Including captive populations, the risk of full extinction by 2100 is lower, estimated at 18.00%. Captive populations provide a buffer against complete extinction, but threats like genetic bottlenecks and reduced conservation funding remain significant.

Reasoning

The wild extinction risk reflects severe pressures from poaching, habitat loss, and climate change, which are accelerating population declines. Conservation efforts, while impactful, are insufficient to counteract these threats fully. Captive populations reduce the full extinction risk but cannot ensure species recovery without robust wild population conservation

Sources provided by AI models:

https://www.wwf.org.uk/learn/wildlife/african-elephants

https://iucn.org/news/species-survival-commission/202108/shrinking-spaces-worlds-largest-land-animal

https://globalconservation.org/endangered-species/african-savanna-elephant

https://africageographic.com/stories/elephant-populations-drop-by-90-forest-and-70-savannah-in-53-years-study/

https://www.cms.int/sites/default/files/publication/fact_sheet_elephants_dec2024.pdf

https://iucn.org/sites/default/files/2024-07/2023-iucn-ssc-african-elephant-specialist-group_publication.pdf

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2312569121

https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation?paperid=89163

https://seaworld.org/animals/all-about/elephants/conservation/#:~:text=The%20Convention%20on%20International,certain%20wildlife%20species%2C%20including

https://www.actionforelephantsuk.org/african-elephants/#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20as%20the,cyclotis%29%20from%20the%20savanna

https://africa.si.edu/research/conservation/protect-ivory/#:~:text=African%20elephants%20are%20likely,415%2C000%20African%20elephants%20in

https://www.actionforelephantsuk.org/african-elephants/#:~:text=population%2C%20containing%20more%20than,remaining%20population%20of%20this

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0175942

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0193469

https://medcraveonline.com/IJAWB/the-future-survival-of-african-elephants-implications-for-conservation.html

https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1403984111

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/aje.70034