Will any country in the world have a transgender head of state by 2050?
➕
Plus
20
Ṁ474
2050
63%
chance

By “head of state” I mean head of the executive branch. President, prime minister, monarch, or other primary leader.

“Yes” includes if someone who was previously the primary leader of a country comes out as transgender after their term ends.

If a leader who dies is alleged to have been transgender after their death, this does not count.

“No” if on 1st January 2050, no country has had a transgender primary leader.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

would it be the PM or president for some of these countries ? (or just if any of the listed roles are that counts)

By “head of state” I mean head of the executive branch. President, prime minister, monarch, or other primary leader.

This is a very messed up definition.

Politics is messy, but this definition is clear if you read it correctly.

@DaisyWelham if the definition was clear, there would be no valid doubts like:

  • if a European ceremonial monarch is trans, does that count?

  • who counts for France and other semipresidential countries - the President, Prime Minister or both?

  • what about constitutional monarchies (and similar regimes like Iran) where the monarch of ayatollah exercises political power along elected representatives?

Unlikely hypotheticals aside (is Iran likely to be the first country to have a transgender head of state?) the definition is clear on all of this. Perhaps you ought to read it again.

I think you should change the term to "leader", since the way you are using "head of state" does not coincide at all with its usual definition.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules