A nuclear site is any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil.
Such a strike must be widely assumed to be perpetrated by Israel and must cause clear physical damage as a direct goal of the attack. It must take place after the creation of this market and before 01/01/2026. Will resolve according to time the attack took place, not time of reporting.
If there is ambiguity I will use my personal best judgement. I will not bet on this market.
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@ChadCotty it would resolve YES in the case of active Israeli involvement in combat eg. Israeli planes/pilots/drones.
If Israel were to provide only soft cooperation with such a strike—say providing intelligence—the market would not resolve YES.
@FergusArgyll Cyber attacks intended to cause clear physical damage—eg. remotely centrifuge explosions—resolve YES.
Cyber attacks not intended to cause clear physical damage—eg. remotely wiping hard-drives with crucial data—resolve NO.
Put simply: the market resolves YES if there is physical damage to a nuclear site intentionally and directly caused by Israel. It resolves NO otherwise.
https://www.axios.com/2024/11/15/iran-israel-destroyed-active-nuclear-weapons-research-facility
Note that this strike occured before the creation of this market and cannot trigger a YES resolution.