Will manifold think "it would be safer if all AI was open source" when: | Manifold

Will manifold think "it would be safer if all AI was open source" when:

Plus

13

Ṁ726

2100

15%

Llama 4 comes out

12%

It's 2030

10%

It's 2026 Jan

8%

It's 2025 Jan

6%

GPT 5 comes out

At each of the dates in this market I'll run a poll asking:

"Would it be safer for humanity if all AI was open source?"

First poll:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

This interview with zuck was my inspiration for this market.

At 38 minutes they discuss the dangers of open source and at 48:50 zuck makes an interesting point that maybe the biggest harms aren't the existential ones but the real ones that exist today.

Related questions

Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?

An AI is trustworthy-ish on Manifold by 2030?

Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)

At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

At the beginning of 2027, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

At the beginning of 2025, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)

When will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion on Manifold?

When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]

Related questions

Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?

At the beginning of 2025, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

An AI is trustworthy-ish on Manifold by 2030?

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)

At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

When will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion on Manifold?

At the beginning of 2027, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

When will manifold users think we have AGI? [Resolves to a majority yes in poll]

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules