Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of February 2025?
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22
Ṁ3416Mar 2
7%
chance
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https://twitter.com/alyssamvance/status/1734995576360443933
"Trifecta" here means "Republicans win the House, Senate, and Presidency". If they do not win a trifecta I will cancel the market. Otherwise I will resolve based on the non conditional version of this market.
The spirit of this question is "will the US make getting/giving/using abortion pills inevitably involve a federal felony", so it will resolve YES even if e.g. distributing (but not prescribing) becomes a felony.
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This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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I bet "No", but February is doing a lot of work there. See related market for what if they have until the end of the congressional term.
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