![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fdream%252Fwfhs150fNX.png%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3De2ad681b-8cca-4065-8cc6-1323b93733a3&w=3840&q=75)
By 1 Jan 2026, will at least three top AI labs worldwide be party a voluntary agreement or bound by a law that limits AI model sizes in some way? Here size could be number of parameters, amount of data or FLOPS used in training.
Get Ṁ600 play money
More related questions
Related questions
An AI model with 100 trillion parameters exists by the end of 2025?
26% chance
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)
23% chance
10GW AI training run before 2029?
50% chance
By March 14, 2025, will there be an AI model with over 10 trillion parameters?
66% chance
Will any developed country establish a limit on compute for AI training by 2026?
20% chance
Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?
22% chance
Will the US government commit to legal restrictions on large AI training runs by January 1st, 2025?
13% chance
Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?
24% chance
Will the US government enact legislation before 2026 that substantially slows US AI progress?
27% chance
Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?
23% chance