![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FIhorKendiukhov%2Fgx4zc5rzyd.jpg&w=3840&q=75)
Will any developed country establish a limit on compute for AI training by 2026?
Basic
8
Ṁ9932026
20%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Criteria for Resolution:
1. Developed Country:
- A country classified as "developed" by reputable international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, or United Nations.
2. Establishment of Limit:
- The government of the developed country must officially establish and enforce a limit on the computational resources (compute) that can be used for AI training. The limit must be at least nation-wide.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?
78% chance
Will the US government commit to legal restrictions on large AI training runs by January 1st, 2025?
13% chance
Will the US regulate AI development by end of 2025?
42% chance
Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)
23% chance
Limits on AI model size by 2026?
27% chance
10GW AI training run before 2029?
50% chance
Will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
14% chance
Will the US government enact legislation before 2026 that substantially slows US AI progress?
27% chance
Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?
23% chance
Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?
37% chance