What happens if China agrees to all of that but no actual inspections happen until 2026?

Is that a yes or no resolution?

For this question to resolve yes, not only does an international AI regulatory body need to exist, china ALSO needs to submit not only to caps proposed by such a body but ALSO to inspections of private AND public AI facilities, ALL by the end of 2025?

This sure seems unlikely.

I'm at <10% here.

I also expect at >98% to die without international compute limits, and <96% with, so let's do this even though it'll likely fail 🤷

So if they implement them on their own stuff this resolves yes?

Is this conditional on such an international regulatory body being created and imposing compute/memory caps?

@kcs Why would it?

Unconditional for now. If you want to make a conditional prob mkt go ahead we can short that too

Related to this twitter thread

https://twitter.com/ai_in_check/status/1716598064696250596?s=46&t=q-Ds0aJ7frdEfqZMJVfhJA