Will the US regulate AI development by end of 2025?
25
1kṀ823
2026
32%
chance

Resolves YES if the US passes legislation or executive orders with the intent of making it illegal for frontier AI companies to publish models with dangerous capabilities.

For the market to resolve YES, the regulations can be imperfect or flawed, but the spirit and goal of the regulations needs to be to mitigate AI risk.

Will be resolved in the spirit of the question at the time of creation.

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I doubt comprehensive regulation will be in place by the end of 2025, given the rapid pace of AI development. Policymakers are still catching up with the technology. It will be interesting to see how software development firms adapt to changing guidelines. Worth checking out more from Inoxoft on this evolving landscape.

It’s likely the US will introduce some form of AI regulation by the end of 2025, especially around safety, data use, and transparency, but full enforcement may take longer.

Do you mean frontier AI companies from this Frontier Model Forum list i.e. these 4

Anthropic, Google, Microsoft and OpenAI are launching the Frontier Model Forum, an industry body focused on ensuring safe and responsible development of frontier AI models.

or do you mean any company developing SOTA models?

predictedNO

@firstuserhere Either of these would count!

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