Will the US regulate AI development by end of 2025?
Plus
21
Ṁ5532026
41%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if the US passes legislation or executive orders with the intent of making it illegal for frontier AI companies to publish models with dangerous capabilities.
For the market to resolve YES, the regulations can be imperfect or flawed, but the spirit and goal of the regulations needs to be to mitigate AI risk.
Will be resolved in the spirit of the question at the time of creation.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Do you mean frontier AI companies from this Frontier Model Forum list i.e. these 4
Anthropic, Google, Microsoft and OpenAI are launching the Frontier Model Forum, an industry body focused on ensuring safe and responsible development of frontier AI models.
or do you mean any company developing SOTA models?
Related questions
Related questions
Will the US government commit to legal restrictions on large AI training runs by January 1st, 2025?
4% chance
Will the U.S. create a new federal agency to regulate AI by the end of 2024?
13% chance
Will a major tech company announce a significant new AI regulation compliance feature by the end of 2024?
55% chance
Will the US government adopt a mandatory labeling system for AI-generated content by 2025?
25% chance
Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?
20% chance
Will the U.S. Congress pass, by January 10, 2025, a major bill which regulates AI?
8% chance
Will a regulatory body modeled on the FDA regulate AI in the US by the end of 2027?
16% chance
Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?
50% chance
Will the US government enact legislation before 2026 that substantially slows US AI progress?
18% chance
Will the US establish a clear AI developer liability framework for AI harms by 2028?
39% chance