Note that this market will resolve no in the case that the market below resolves yes.

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Would this include restrictions into the use of of AI-capable hardware in resolving to YES?

@PipFoweraker If it's used in training AIs above a certain level, yes.

How will this resolve if temporary restrictions are imposed, but the restrictions are ended or loosened before 2030?

@EvanTh wouldn't the first resolve YES have triggered payout?

@EvanTh They will have to last at least a year.

possible arb here https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/contingent-on-ai-being-perceived-as

I anticipate restrictions, but not restrictions that will prevent the development of an AI more advanced than GPT-4 emerging before 2030.