Will we be able to decode dolphin communication by 2030?
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23
Ṁ844
2029
40%
chance

Resolves yes if there is a published paper in a reputable journal claiming to be able to provide reasonably accurate translations of dolphin to dolphin communication. Some background: https://www.scienceabc.com/nature/animals/can-communicate-dolphins.html

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relying on knowledge I have about map of upcoming ML insights - if we're not dead, yeah definitely. in general my bets are conditional on not dead.

OK, I basically never bet more than 10, and here I bet 20 to NO. There are multiple related communication systems at work, they are organized on different principles than (human) natural languages so one can't just import insights from theoretical linguistics, and yeah, it's not like we're swimming in data sufficiently for setting up a neural network translator. I'm, like, 98% certain on that one (although I won't actually spend the mana to lower the market that much).

No way. Scientists are studying isolated populations all over the globe. It's like trying to "decode human communication" by studying Mandarin speakers and Swahili speakers and Portuguese speakers all mixed together. And also with none of them having a very large dataset.

Ok you can't just say that someone published a paper on dolphin language in a reputable journal without posting said paper

@ScottOwens I meant it resolves yes if that occurs. Editing description to clarify

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