Definition of "Open Conflict":

A situation will be considered “open conflict” if any one of the following occurs:

1. A sustained military engagement between:

   • The Iranian state and another state actor (e.g., the U.S., Israel, or Saudi Arabia), or

   • The Iranian state and an organized non-state group (e.g., Kurdish separatists or armed opposition),

   • Within Iran, or involving Iranian territory or airspace,

   • That includes at least two of the following:

     • Use of explosives, missiles, airstrikes, or drone strikes,

     • Engagements lasting more than 48 hours,

     • 10 or more fatalities total (civilian or combatant),

   • Acknowledgement of hostilities by a credible media outlet or government as an “armed conflict” or “military operation”, etc.

2. A foreign state (or coalition of states) deploys ground troops into Iran without Iran’s invitation and with military intent (e.g., not just peacekeeping or evacuation).

Resolution Sources (Hierarchical):

Resolution will be based on reports from at least two of the following independent sources:

1. Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, New York Times, Al Jazeera, The Guardian.

2. Official government releases (e.g., U.S. DoD, Iranian Armed Forces, Israeli MoD).

3. Reports by international organizations (e.g., UN, Red Cross) confirming combat fatalities or hostilities.

If sources disagree, preference will be given to official statements corroborated by independent media reports.

Clarifications / Edge Cases:

• Cyberattacks, economic sanctions, covert sabotage, assassinations, and protests do not count unless they escalate into open armed conflict as defined above.

• Clashes on Iran’s borders or in neighboring countries do not count unless they involve confirmed Iranian territory or Iranian armed forces.

• Domestic unrest (e.g., riots or protests) only qualifies if organized groups engage in sustained armed conflict with the Iranian state, meeting the above criteria.