https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1826340260735058400
This market is specifically on whom the above tweet is referring to, regardless of whether the interview occurs.
@HamzaThange And I’d say Dwarkesh has less incentive to give Musk even more of a platform. Everyone had enough of his antics already.
@TommyEagle It is some signal that he’s still very interested in history but 1. that isn’t new and 2. this may well be about guests that are not the biggest. Though I think Caro very likely.
Since we don't support multi-choice sweepstakes yet, I made this market enabled to win cash prizes on: https://manifold.markets/SG/will-elon-musk-appear-on-dwarkesh-p?play=false
@DylanBowman probably want to make this one invalid as well given that you said earlier that in this case it'd N/A?
@Ziddletwix Participants shouldn't have to read the whole comment section to find out if the market maker added resolution criteria. If "No one" resolves N/A that should be added to the question description.
@WilliamKiely Sure, they should add that to the description. But when anyone can add answers, it is impossible to avoid people adding answers that don't fit the question. I don't think it's surprising that when the question asks "Who", an answer of "no one" isn't a valid addition. But there's no way to litigate that without the creator chiming in. That's how open-addition markets have to work—people will add stuff that hasn't been vetted by the creator yet, and it might turn out to be invalid.
https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1841157109419032885
"Huawei outcomes Western firms regularly with 2 hands tied behind their back"
"They go crazy because they think in 5 years they're going to fight a war with the United States"
Full episode out Wednesday
@benshindel I'd agree that "Other" seems appropriate (and now "No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific" now that someone added that as an option), especially since the resolution criteria doesn't say anything about it resolving ambiguously in that instance. But I'm going to stay out of this market since it seems unclear.
@DylanBowman if you want to exclude this answer (& avoid people betting on it further), you should be able to edit the text? (e.g. to "INVALID")