Which social election "prediction" will correctly predict the outcome of the 2024 election
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Plus
2
Ṁ51
Nov 6
12%
Redskin Rule - Kamala (incumbent)
12%
Nickelodeon Kids Pick the President - Kamala
12%
Epic Rap Battle First Verse - Kamala
12%
Epic Rap Battle Thumbnail - Trump
12%
Manifold Markets - Trump
12%
Polymarket - Trump
26%Other

1 - there was a strong correlation between the outcome of the last home game for the Washington Redskins (now known as the Washington Commanders) prior to the U.S. presidential election and the outcome of the election: when Washington won, the party of the incumbent president retained the presidency; when Washington lost, the opposition party won. (19/23 - 3 L streak)

2 - Kids Pick the President is a series of specials produced by Nickelodeon, organized around a mock election to determine children's choice for the President of the United States. Since 1988, Kids Pick the President has accurately predicted the winner of each election with the exceptions of the 2004 and 2016 presidential elections. ( 8/9 - 1 W streak)

3 & 4 - The Epic Rap Battles YouTube channel has posted 3 election rap battles, correctly predicting the previous 3 elections in a row. The superstition states that the candidate that has the first verse in the rap battle will lose, along with the winning candidate being on the left. This election, those two are conflicting, while Trump has the first verse, despite being depicted on the left on the thumbnail. (3/3 - 3 W streak)

5 - The manifold poll will be resulted based on the mana prediction at November 4th 11:59pm. The current manifold polls show Trump as winning more electoral votes, and therefore the election.

6 - Polymarket is an American financial exchange and the world's largest prediction market. In 2024, the outcome of U.S. elections became the most active market on the platform, with over $2.4 billion (as of October 26, 2024)[10] wagered on the presidential race between the Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Trump currently leads the polls with 66.6% to Kamala's 33.4%

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this is a dependent MC market, so only one of these can resolve YES (or multiple can resolve to percentages to add up to exactly 100%). i don't think that's intended, as multiple of these are bound to resolve YES. so you may want to N/A this and recreate as independent MC

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