I have asked ChatGPT, if it would buy YES or NO shares at 37%. Here is the answer: If I were to decide, I would evaluate the Santa Fe Land Iguana's situation and its extinction risk. Based on what I know and assuming the 37% extinction risk is the market's consensus, here's my thought process:

1. Research on Santa Fe Land Iguanas:

• The Santa Fe Land Iguana (Conolophus pallidus) is a unique species native to Santa Fe Island in the Galápagos. While the species benefits from the Galápagos' strict conservation measures, it faces challenges such as:

  • Climate Change: Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns may threaten its food sources and habitat.

  • Invasive Species: Predators like rats or goats (common threats to Galápagos fauna) could devastate populations if not managed.

  • Small Population Size: Smaller populations are inherently more vulnerable to stochastic events, like disease or extreme weather.

2. Assessment of the 37% Odds:

• 37% feels a bit high, given the level of global attention and resources dedicated to protecting species in the Galápagos. The Ecuadorian government and conservation organizations (e.g., Charles Darwin Foundation) have strong measures in place, such as invasive species eradication programs.

• Successful conservation stories in the Galápagos (e.g., giant tortoises) suggest that species with active management often fare better than global averages.

3. My Decision:

I’d buy NO shares, because:

• I believe the market might be overestimating extinction risk due to general pessimism around climate change and biodiversity.

• The Santa Fe Land Iguana likely benefits from extensive conservation efforts, making its extinction less likely than 37%.

However, if there's breaking bad news about their population or conservation efforts, this stance could change.