The list of recent winners:
2023: Jonas Vingegaard
2022: Jonas Vingegaard
2021: Tadej Pogacar
2020: Tadej Pogacar
2019: Egan Bernal
2018: Geraint Thomas
I will add more information to this later when we know more about the race. There is definitely enough known about the potential competitors to start a market now, though.
Related questions
Pogi caught COVID 10 days ago...
https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/tadej-pogacar-reveals-that-he-overcame-covid-19-in-the-lead-up-to-the-tour-de-france/
Just created a few dashboards for the Tour de France to organize the chaos a little bit: https://manifold.markets/news/tour-de-france-2024-1wmakfef
And one which contains some links and informations for everyone who is new to the sport:
https://manifold.markets/news/tour-de-france-for-newbies
You can esily save them by clicking on the bookmark symbol in the right corner. If I should add new/other markets feel free to tag or dm me.
we are still missing markets for individual stages, those are always fun to predict, but I'm very low on mana and fear that I won't recover it if I make markets. Unless someone else wants to do basic markets, I might create mini markets for stages, at least the interesting ones, like top mountain finishes, ITT and sprint stages
I think @ovals has been making those, and there are markets for the first 4 stages, and the last stage. The last stage one is the same as who wins the tour, but I still find it interesting and worth having because their markets close 2 hours after the stage starts, so there is less live betting, and with final stage being ITT it is pretty exciting.
I think people buying Yes on Jonas are nuts and the sportsbooks are just making tons and tons of money offering him at 36% ๐ (half joking)
We have actually had Pogacar and Roglic both very very close to real money odds for a long time, we seem to specifically disagree on Jonas and then we're giving a lot of his odds to the long tail of other guys.
nobody (except for himself and the Visma people that can see his power output) knows his form. I feel like a lot of us here are judging that his form cannot be as good as the last two years because we have seen guys coming back from similar injuries and not being 100% for a while. The first week will say a lot. I think that UAE will attack from stage 1 to see his form, then we can adjust. If he doesn't lose too much time in the first week, he will have time to be very good the last week, and a final ITT will benefit him.
@drevv I don't think we should necessarily be matching sports betting odds, not all people there know a lot about cycling (I'm assuming cycling people don't bet that much). I wouldn't be surprised if some people just bet on Jonas because he won the last two Tours or because they saw TdF Unchained this week, without even knowing that he is recovering from injury. The procyclingstats game should be a more interesting comparison, I think they close the game for GC in a week.
I don't think cycling betting odds are a good reference because they have a huge margin in the payout. For example, the odds for Jonas are 11/4 on average (resulting in a 36% probability), but all options add up to 200%, there is a significant spread. (I've discussed this a few month ago with Yuna below.) I'm pretty sure the betting sites know that Jonas crashed since most of them offered odds for the tour without him for a long time. I don't know exactly how these work, but I don't think sports betting sites provide good forecasting for cycling. They're just a rip-off due to their spread.
However, I still think Manifold has a fan-based view on Pogacar and is underestimating Vingegaard, but I'm not buying any more shares since I'm already quite leveraged in this market.
I personally believe that VLaB wouldn't send Vingegaard to the tour if they didn't believe he could win it. He has had a lot of time to recover from the crash. And Pogi peaked in the Giro, and it's quite hard to maintain his form until the end of the tour. Unless Vingegaard loses 10 minutes in the first week, I'm pretty bullish on him.
Vingegaard doesn't have the same fanbase, so Pogacar will always be a little bit overrated, especially with the influence of many US bettors.
After today's Dauphine stage awarded two riders with the combativity prize, I thought of this new market. Maybe they'll do it! It feels like such an obviously good idea to at least have the option....
VISMA MEDIA SPIN
One part says he won't decide if he's going until the week before.
๐ค
I think he's going to start.
@Eliza Pump your brakes, Tadej is my favorite and I am making the odds this morning!