Can we get a guarantee of mods helping with this resolution, idk if anyone trusts this wording and that's why it keeps going up

It keeps going up because the market creator is occasionally injecting very large amounts of YES. This and the wording, as you say, does not inspire confidence in eventual resolution concordance...

Cc @mods

Yes, if they blatantly misresolve we will fix it

ty!

Yo it's ok, as I said I like to keep things interesting. I will trust mod will be present when the market resolves (if not conscripted yet).

i believe you now o7

@strutheo lol what

@EnricoCaminiti can you confirm which countries you're considering "the super powers" for the resolution for this market, so there isn't any debate if a new war is declared?

Mainly nuclear powers and/or any powerful entity capable of deploying troops en masse. For example, if the EU started sending some troops to Ukraine, it would be a significant step but not a resolution for this market unless mass conscription is adopted by both the EU and Russia.

I understand that the dynamics of this market are subject to interpretability. However, to establish a general framework, I'd vouch for the following (the list is not exhaustive but should give a general view):

The concept of "nuclear powers" generally refers to countries that possess nuclear weapons and the capability to deploy them. The major nuclear powers include:

• United States

• Russia

• China

• France

• United Kingdom

• India

• Pakistan

• North Korea

Israel is also widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, although it has not officially confirmed this.

In terms of deploying troops en masse, the ability to mobilize and sustain large-scale military operations involves several factors such as the size of the military, logistical capabilities, economic resources, and political will. Here are some powerful entities capable of such deployments:

• United States: With the largest defense budget in the world, the U.S. has significant capabilities to deploy troops globally, supported by extensive logistical infrastructure.

• Russia: As the largest country in the world with a significant military force, Russia has demonstrated the ability to deploy large numbers of troops, as seen in conflicts such as the ongoing situation in Ukraine.

• China: The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is the largest standing military force in the world. China has been expanding its global military presence, particularly in the South China Sea and through initiatives like the Belt and Road.

• European Union: While the EU is not a single military entity, member states like France, Germany, and the UK (pre-Brexit) have substantial military forces. Collective EU action would be significant, especially if combined under NATO.

• India: With the second-largest military in the world, India has considerable capabilities for mass troop deployment, particularly in its region.

• NATO: Comprising 30 member countries, NATO has significant collective military resources and a framework for coordinated mass troop deployment.

Why isn't his market in the single digits?

I'm also curious - @EnricoCaminiti is holding the largest yes position here. the rumors are that GTA6 will release in autumn 2025, is there really a 25% chance ww3 starts before then?

chances are much lower, but I like to keep the market interesting.

Do you know something, @EnricoCaminiti? 🥲

i like to see patterns.

balls

deep

@nikstar Enrico clearly knows something but I'm voting NO because if WW3 actually happens, losing manifold mana is probably gonna be the least of my problems. 😅

@shoe Enrico knows that periodically putting absurd amounts of mana into YES will get more engagement from people who want to drive it back down again

@NoUsernameSelected That's not a good strategy if he then loses

Q: what does it count as if war is not formally declared? For example, neither the invasion of Vietnam nor the invasion of Ukraine had formal declarations of war.

Yeah, exactly, current resolution criteria is very narrow. But even if you somewhat broaden it, proxy wars shouldn’t count. So for example Vietnam should not count as a war between US and Soviet Union/China.

Yeah I was just using those as examples of wars that aren’t actually declared wars.

Clear escalation may be an indication that war is brewing but it is not a definitive answer of "did WW3 start?"

At the moment we could use the following criteria

1. Global Scale:

   • Involvement of multiple major powers across different continents.
     At current moment only Nato and Russia are engaged in proxy conflict, but it's well localized and does not involve direct intervention from USA/EU side other than money and logistics.

2. Widespread Impact:

   • Significant global economic, political, and social repercussions. In this sense the world is closer than ever to a global conflict, given that we are currently in a trade war.

3. Prolonged Conflict:

   • Sustained military engagements over a long period. This means both money AND manpower. Until a world power doesn't join in with heavy military intervention, we cannot declare we are in a world war.
     
     
     While the conflict in Ukraine exhibits some characteristics that could escalate into a larger, more global conflict, it currently lacks the full criteria to be classified as a world war. Similar discussion may be taken to other proxy conflict taking place currently.