Bridge built connecting mainland Italy to Sicily through 2030
25
1kṀ4358
2031
16%
chance

At least some work must have started and project must be funded and on track

Connecting each sides mainland, not islands

(Although stopovers or steps at islands are fine)

You'll be able to travel above water not flying between the countries

  • Update 2025-03-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Clarification:

    • The project must have no remaining required unfunded or unplanned steps at the time of resolution.

    • This means that all necessary steps must be fully funded and planned without any outstanding components.

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bought Ṁ50 NO

and on track

easy NO

Not completely sure what "on track" means here. I read it as "The project is reasonably on track according to some official timeline that has 'Bridge Opening' at its end".

@Maxx yes. Without remaining required unfunded or unplanned steps.

predictedNO

Would a tunnel count?

predictedNO

@mariopasquato nope

"You'll be able to travel above water not flying between the countries"

it has to be above the water. Basically a pedestrian, train, car, etc bridge which physically connects the two sides and which a human could go across.

predictedNO

@Ernie Ferries excluded :-)

predictedNO

@mariopasquato definitely. it has to be relatively fixed. if it were a semipermanent boat which cars could drive over, but which also could sail away... that's a toughie.

predictedNO

@Ernie Hey, don't forget about giant (floating) pontoon bridges https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evergreen_Point_Floating_Bridge :P

predictedNO

@RobertCousineau yeah.

anyway I'm looking for something that is really a bridge. at least semi-permanent, resistant to all normal weather, planned to last at least 50 years etc. I think that's reasonable considering the other markets in this category "mega-bridges"

predictedNO

For a base rate, since the birth of the Republic Italy had N=31 prime ministers. Let’s call f the fraction of those who wanted to build a bridge. If p is the probability of success, the probability that they would all fail (assuming independent attempts, which is obviously wrong) would be (1-p)^(fN).

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