based on this list https://ratings.fide.com/
Update 2024-12-12 (PST): The market will resolve based on the July 1st 2025 FIDE rating list (published June 30th 2025), as this list reflects Magnus's rating through the end of June 2025. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000
3.00@creator @mods This is still ambiguous.
From https://qc.fide.com/faqs/ "FIDE publishes its new rating list on the last day of every month, to come into use from the first day of the new month."
So at the close time, the July rating list will have been published (assuming no delays), but the June rating list will still be the effective list. So will this resolve based on the June list, or the July list?
@DanielTilkin interesting. The goal fo the market is to discuss Magnus's rating through the close date. If the "come into use" on July 1st "in effect" number refers to the period prior to that time (which it seems that it must do) then it seems to me that that number is the last one validly related to this claim.
i.e. the claim is about magnus's rating through end june 2024. On june 30 a number is publicly released relating to his rating during the period. The number as released is noted to come "into effect" on july 1st. Yet it clearly refers to the period we care about. So, that number counts for this market.
@Ernie Still not clear to me what exactly counts at 'mid 2025' here: Is this 30 June 2025 (which would mean this would resolve based on the June rating list) or 1 July 2025 (which would mean this resolves based on the July rating list)?