New CEO at three of 13 top companies by April 1 2025

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2025

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There will be a new CEO in place in at least three of these companies by April 1 2025.

Facebook (Meta)
Google (Alphabet)
Microsoft
Amazon
IBM
NVidia
Tesla
Netflix
Snapchat
Uber
Airbnb
Dropbox
LinkedIn

Announcements of future changes don't count. The new CEO needs to have taken on the role by the due date.

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import numpy as np

probs_for_one_year = np.array([5, 10, 9, 14, 8, 4, 6, 8, 15, 4, 4, 7 ])/100
in_next_two_years = probs_for_one_year+((1-probs_for_one_year)*probs_for_one_year)

res = []
for _ in range(300000):
    sample = (np.random.random(in_next_two_years.shape) < in_next_two_years).sum() >= 3
    res.append(sample)
np.mean(res)

predicts NO

Returns .26

After some thought updated probs to
[4, 15, 8, 20, 12, 6, 20, 15, 15, 6, 6, 12]

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1vzgzbLqGEuiA5EougVrxB2AJe4RvIFXwdFluiik8nVs/edit

@NoaNabeshima this is kind of like a Fermi calculation. Maybe could be improved by evaluating distributions rather than point values?

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