ways this can YES:
it's already implemented and in effect, for at least a month, with no set plans to remove it. ballot measures to change/remove/delete it are allowed to be happening in the future, as long as the de facto state of the existing plan is happening and hasn't got an end date
OR if at claim end there is an an implementation plan approved as much as possible at the time, with a fixed day, date and year for it to go into effect, confirmed prices, and be fully on schedule to actually happen at that date, which also must be within 1 year of close, that can YES too
Otherwise NO
The plan must have a large area (at least 20% of the SF metropolitan area) which uses a monetary price or proxy for it to charge extra for people driving into/in the area. It must be actually happening at least 4 days a week for at least 8 hours (or equivalent in hours/week).
Update 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator:
The 20% area requirement refers to the city proper of San Francisco, not the entire metropolitan area.
1,000
3.00
@traders unfortunately I messed up writing this and wrote metropolitan area rather than my intention, the official city boundaries. See map
Ways to resolve this: if people bet on mistaken interpretation, if you agree, I'll just change the description. If you would agree to compensation or to be bought out at a fair price, I can do that to get your approval and then change description.
If not I can NA. There is benefit to this if the replacement market used a more precise definition than 20% land area, such as perhaps a minimum size (directly comparable to Manhattan's size) or if possible a density weighted coverage area (hard to find and calculate reliably)
Please let me know.
The plan must have a large area (at least 20% of the SF metropolitan area)
This makes no almost certain. The area covered would have to be nearly 500 square miles, over 10x the size of SF itself. http://censusreporter.org/profiles/31000US41860-san-francisco-oakland-fremont-ca-metro-area/
@MikeLinksvayer oh damn you're right. I mean the area of the city proper not the whole metropolitan area.
@Ernie cool. 20% is still pretty unlikely. Early proposals so far such as https://www.sfcta.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Downtown%20Congestion%20Pricing%20Study%20Board%20Update%20July%2013%2C%202021.pdf#page=4 have been a lot smaller than that, I'd guess no more than 10% of the area of the city proper. Unless we consider the sfh areas of the city to not be part of the city proper, which would be fine with me. :)
@WilliamGunn Just increasing bridge tolls would not effect 101 coming up the peninsula, and there are lots of roads like that. The idea I'm going for is a zone which is monetarily restricted, so half of it can't be open as usual.
@Ernie Ok, so also tolls on 101 & 280 Northbound? Just trying to get a sense of how you think this would be implemented.
@WilliamGunn from the maps of Manhattan it looks like there is also a borderline at 60th Street where every street is monitored for people crossing.
In SF you could do something similar by combining lines of land monitoring with control of the bridges to create a zone.
@Ernie Oh, wow, they literally did just put cameras on every street in the NYC implementation. I somehow thought the solution would have been less dystopian and ugly, but I don't know why. Urban planners have not been shy about their disregard for aesthetics.
@Ernie You might want to specify a certain region, like north of market, east of Van Ness or something. That's where they'd put it, I reckon, and I don't know if that's 20% or what.
@WilliamGunn yeah I mean if they do something we can evaluate how much of the city is covered. 20 % may not be right but that's what people are betting on. If I specify an area myself that makes the claim super unlikely to YES
@WilliamGunn I figured that's why you were asking 😁 yeah. Actually though I think license plate cams are common. My town San Mateo just signed a new deal to have 44 of them, up from 20 or so. They're used to track down people with open warrants and grab them when they're just out shopping or whatever and not expecting it. I like that harm reduction result but yeah it also means they know where we are quite a lot of the time.
That said, with phones, satellites and similar, it seems hard to stem the tide. Not that it's okay, just that resistance would need a good plan to keep any of many failure modes from happening
@ZviMowshowitz FYI. Thanks for your inspirational article https://thezvi.substack.com/p/nyc-congestion-pricing-early-days