Will an F-35 be lost by the US in 2025 | Manifold

Will an F-35 be lost by the US in 2025

Plus

21

Ṁ840

2026

56%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Lost for any reason. Within 2025 calendar year.

Counts

Crash
Lost
Captured
Disappeared
Stolen by adversary

Does not count

Unusable plane due to bugs
Repossessed by creditors
Unavailable due to conflict with former ally who no longer allows us physical access
We still control it but it can't take off due to runway damage or runway unavailability, even intentional
Sold or transferred to ally or other

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Looks like the US has written off 7 F-35's over the course of 10 years (probably this is an undercount). I presume that implies a 70% chance of losing a jet any one year

The link you’ve posted takes me to an electric bike manual

@QuestionableQuentin That's hilarious - I had some bike work to do at the time. Here is the correct link: https://www.f-16.net/aircraft-database/F-35/mishaps-and-accidents/year/2024/

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