Will Nayib Bukele peacefully transition out of power before 2035?
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9
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2035
57%
chance

i.e. there is a new leader and Bukele is not in control of El Salvador anymore, and he basically agrees to not be in control anymore, without violence, such as due to losing an election.

Independent electoral violence is not relevant, but if it's sponsored by him in an attempt to retain power, NO. EDIT: Not sure what I meant initially, but this illogically said "YES" in the original description.

If he is still in control in 2035, NO

If he is actually in control although not nominally (i.e. similar to Putin in Russia) it counts as still being in power, so NO

If he loses power for another reason such as injury or death, YES. EDIT: unless there was violence either initiated by Bukele or others in favor of him, to defend his role, or against him leading to his death, or generally just to put pressure on him which resulted in his injury death. In that case, NO.

EDIT: So, to summarize:

If he's out of power and it went smoothly, at any point before EOY 2034, immediate YES.

If he's still in control, no resolution.

If time out, it ought to resolve NO since he's not out of power.

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Surely if he sponsors electoral violence in an attempt to retain power, this should resolve NO (sicne he's not accepting peaceful trasnfer of power)? It say it would resolve YES above in that instance but given the other information I assume that's a mistake.

@AngolaMaldives thanks, sorry for the unclarity. I have adjusted the description.

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