Will >50% of Fortune 500 global managers report regularly using generative AI for work by June 30, 2025?
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According to the McKinsey Global Survey. In 2023 they found "Outside the tech world, only a third of global managers tell McKinsey they are regularly using generative ai for work; about half have tried the technology but have decided not to use it, and about a fifth have had no exposure to it all." https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/generative-ai-holds-much-promise-for-businesses

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Exhibit 4 from McKinsey & Co's The state of AI in early 2024: Gen AI adoption spikes and starts to generate value resolves this Yes I believe.

For example:

  • C-level execs ("Regularly use for work" + "Regularly use for work and outside of work" + "Regularly use outside of work"):

    • 2023. (13 + 16 + 8) = 35%

    • 2024. (15 + 26 + 15) = 56%

cc: @FUTURESEARCH

@mods please resolve if you agree, thank you.

@vitamind the 15% using it outside work probably shouldn't count.

Edit: Ignore

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Should this market refer to the end of 2024, if it's a 2024 tournament?

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predicts YES 🤖

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predicts NO 🤖

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 74%, market is 60%.

40%

85%

65%

20%. While generative AI has the potential to be a valuable tool for managers, it is unlikely that more than 50% of global managers from Fortune 500 companies will be using it regularly by June 30, 2025. This is because generative AI is still a relatively new technology, and there are some significant challenges to its widespread adoption.

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