![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FNermitBundaloy%2F84912d469e18.jpg%3FGoogleAccessId%3Dmantic-markets%2540appspot.gserviceaccount.com%26Expires%3D16447017600%26Signature%3DO4%252BvNOrD6vu6T7VaijMst6H0sIl26eLWh4tlhaX6LS320S9w5I0vDW3mCy6v2lgf9Fo8VYf1HhR6BL02st2h%252Bkbxff5R9xd2vBxk6WuRKv%252F936fBI8WBkTbT0VfYXSTVfzVbDWDkrnA4zD3eOTh1SrxmplvE%252B9hcZqh8uH%252B0EVD9xCQiT%252BH6Adzr98pJB3GezyP1Nbek80HldYY02QbssFg02uSrYNpusTEL27u4PQD%252FJtqZsTJLttLpCaYdl01M9R7vO%252BN%252FVQGqgdd5bqPZwY35zS1hBwLDmwvsnHU04kM%252BCgAEf6R3XZ4vv0huN8jEt3qJmijxOyC%252B%252FKcvNhQZpg%253D%253D&w=3840&q=75)
Will the United States and Russia hold nuclear arms control talks in 2024?
Basic
45
Ṁ5.8k2025
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
Both the US and Russia have declared their willingness to engage in arms control talks beyond the expiration of the New START treaty in 2026. But the US may prioritize addressing other strategic challenges, such as China's rise, while Russia remains focused on the war in Ukraine.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
Related questions
Will there be peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in 2024?
17% chance
Will Russia conduct a nuclear test in 2024?
11% chance
Will Russia propose a ceasefire in 2024?
55% chance
Will the US & China agree in 2024 to keep a human in the loop for decisions to use nuclear weapons?
23% chance
Will a nuclear warhead be detonated in 2024?
19% chance
Which country will conduct a nuclear weapons test during 2024?
Will a ceasefire be agreed between Russia and Ukraine in 2024?
20% chance
Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2024?
16% chance
In 2024, will the US and Iran hold talks to limit Iran's nuclear program--e.g., to revive or replace the JCPOA?
24% chance
Will the Russian space nukes be mentioned by anyone in a Presidential debate in 2024?
29% chance