Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge? Will there be many defections from one to the other? Will they form an electoral pact in the next election?

Please feel free to request additional answers to be added. I've decided to keep control over adding answers so I can make sure they're worded in a way that is either unambiguous or that I am happy to arbitrate on, but I'm very open to suggestions.

I'm inclined not to add lots of options for individual Conservative MPs defecting to Reform UK just because there's so many of them. Maybe a separate market for that?

For the ones about defections, they need to cross from one party to the other. If they sit as an independent, that doesn't count. However, if they sit as an independent for a very short amount of time (let's say 72 hours) before joining the other party, that does count. For the purpose of these answers, it's still a "defection" even if it wasn't their choice. In other words, if somebody is kicked out of their party, sits as an independent for a day, then joins the other party, I'm counting that as a "defection", even though it's a slightly unusual use of the word.

For the ones about "coordinated" defections, I will judge whether I think it was coordinated. If it's a joint statement, obviously that's coordinated. If it's within a few days of each other that's probably coordinated. If there's a week or more between each defection it's probably not, unless their statements make it sound like it is. If you think this is too woolly, don't bet on these options.

I won't bet in this market.