Will the "core" Jewish population of the USA be greater than that of Israel by 2030
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11
Ṁ2322030
14%
chance
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1W
1M
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Judged according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_population_by_country
I'll go with the numbers in the table, assuming an equivalent still exists in 2030. I will ignore any section on "Debate over United States numbers" and just look at the bottom line (i.e. the table, assuming it exists).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@JonathanRay that is halfway correct. Not only do their ultra-orthodox members have more kids than their American counterparts, Israeli Secular jews have the highest birthrate of any secular group in the western world (or westernized country).
@JonathanRay this market can more or less be interpreted as "Will any event cause greater than >1 million israeli jews to die leave by 2030".
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