Will Trump declare federal Martial Law in the US before 2029 (given a 2025 presidency)?
27
170Ṁ1155
2029
48%
chance

Martial Law following definitions laid out here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law_in_the_United_States?wprov=sfla1

This question is only about nationwide martial law, not about a local or isolated martial law declaration in one city or one state.

There might be a situation where enough states are in martial law for it to de facto count as federal (e.g. all states of the contiguous United States). I'll let the comment section decide in that edge case.

If trump declares martial law in only words, but doesn't act upon it. E.g. because he's bluffing or no longer in power to do so. Then this does not resolve to a YES (yet)

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Updated description to clarify some questions

  • Market is only about nationwide martial laws, not isolated states or cities

  • If the martial law declaration doesn't happen officially, it's not counted for this market.

filled a Ṁ25 NO at 30% order

@Flekkie If he verbally says that he declares martial law, but he does not have the power to (due to not being the POTUS or similar at the time he does so), would that resolve this YES?

I realize you linked to Wikipedia for your definition, but I just want to confirm which way you lean.

@Quroe thanks for your question! I changed description to clarify. See above

Does it count if he declares martial law in a small city?

Declaring it in an entire state or federally is extremely unlikely.

@MaybeNotDepends thanks for your question! I changed the description to clarify. See above.

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