Conditional on a stable peace between Ukraine and Russia, Crimea will be controlled by neither
Plus
18
Ṁ1027Jan 1
20%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Peace can also mean lasting ceasefire with no deaths for 6 months.
Doesn't have to involve the exact borders of Crimea, can include other territories, but at least 80% of the population and territory of Crimea.
Doesn't have to be a state as long as it's not under direct control of either Ukraine or Russia.
Can allow for a limited amount of troops for either side, for the purpose of inspection or passage, especially if the base of Sevastopol remains leased to Russia; but only if kept in check by a much larger multinational peacekeeper force.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2030?
31% chance
Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?
56% chance
Will Ukraine regain control over Crimea before the end of 2024?
3% chance
By the end of the Ukraine war Crimea will be a part of Ukraine again?
15% chance
Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2026?
18% chance
Control over Crimea in 2035
Will Ukraine have full control over Crimea by the end of 2030?
17% chance
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2026?
34% chance
By the time a ceasefire or peace treaty between Ukraine & Russia is signed, will UA partially control Crimea?
8% chance
Will Ukraine regain control over its entire territory, including Crimea?
49% chance