Will Ukraine have full control over Crimea by the end of 2030?
Plus
32
Ṁ50862030
17%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
“'Those discussions [about peace talks] are starting... '
Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine to Russia...
... aimed at shoring up Ukraine’s position in any future negotiation.
In Politico, December 27 [https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/27/biden-endgame-ukraine-00133211] [sorry for spam]
Related questions
Related questions
Will Ukraine regain control over Crimea before the end of 2024?
3% chance
Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2030?
31% chance
Will Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2026?
18% chance
Will Ukraine regain control of its pre-2014 territory (including Crimea and Donbas) by 2025?
1% chance
By the end of the Ukraine war Crimea will be a part of Ukraine again?
15% chance
Will Ukraine have full control over Crimea by the end of 2026?
11% chance
Will Ukraine control any part of Crimea for at least a week before the end of 2024?
5% chance
Will Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?
56% chance
Control over Crimea in 2035
Will Ukraine agree to a peace treaty that gives Russia control of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk before 2100?
59% chance