Will artificial intelligence be part of a solution of the second Millennium Problem solved from now? | Manifold

Will artificial intelligence be part of a solution of the second Millennium Problem solved from now?

Plus

35

Ṁ3632

2030

86%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Ignore the next Millenium Problem is solved. Will the next Millenium Problem to be solved after that contain artificial intelligence (any sort of black box function that helped a mathematician or conducted the solution entirely). Some sort of brute force algorithm obviously doesn't count.

I'll prefer to defer to the authors/reviewers/specialists whether it involved Artificial Intelligence.

Alternative phrasing: after this related market resolves, what would be the answer if we immediately recreated that market?

Related: https://manifold.markets/MP/will-artificial-intelligence-be-par

In the (IMO unlikely) event that the next Millenium Problem is solved using AI and the one after it is not, this market resolves NO.

Since the answer to this market may be subjective, I will not bet on it.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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It is very strange to me that this is trading below the linked market.

@FutureOwl I can say on my part, that my trading bot had a bug and bought three times as much NO as it was supposed to.

When viewing the linked market, I thought the difference in odds for the next and next-next Millenium Problem solved would be very different (by my estimate going from "probably no" to "probably yes"). I thought this was quite interesting, so I made a market.

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