GPT 5 Exceeds Expectations
Plus
49
Ṁ5060Jan 2
53%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will run a Manifold poll 1 month after the official GPT-5 release asking whether or not it exceeded expectations. Resolves to results of that poll.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@thepurplebull One month after it's released I'll ask "Does GPT-5 exceed your pre-launch expectations?" I'll resolve this based on the results of that.
In every paper comparing various leading LLMs, you see that the refusal rate of OpenAI's various GPTs is literally an order of magnitude higher than competitors. And what's more is that it continues to increase with newer releases of GPT. It has gotten to the point that it will refuse to answer questions about math and science even when explicitly prompted that it's own best guess is okay.
Related questions
Related questions
Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?
1% chance
GPT-5 by 2025?
1% chance
What will be true about GPT-5?
GPT-5 exists
47% chance
Will GPT5 show clear signs of diminishing returns?
50% chance
GPT-5 class models are real, will be significantly better than GPT-4, and are coming by the end of the year.
73% chance
When GPT-5 comes out, will more Manifold users say it exceeded or fell below expectations?
GPT-5 capabilities at launch - make your predictions
What will be true about GPT-5? (See description)
When GPT-5 will released?