GPT 5 Exceeds Expectations

Plus

Ṁ5888

Jul 2

44%

chance

ALL

I will run a Manifold poll 1 month after the official GPT-5 release asking whether or not it exceeded expectations. Resolves to results of that poll.

Update 2025-22-01 (PST): - The market closure date has been extended to July 1, 2025 following updates on the GPT-5 release schedule. (AI summary of creator comment)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

6 Comments

50 Holders

90 Trades

Sort by:

extending until July 1 since Sam said GPT-5 is still coming

How is this affected by the release of strawberry? If we get, in order, gpt-4, gpt-4+strawberry, gpt-5, gpt-5+strawberry?

Will the expectations be surveyed beforehand, or will the poll ask if GPT-5 meets a user’s arbitrary expectations?

@thepurplebull One month after it's released I'll ask "Does GPT-5 exceed your pre-launch expectations?" I'll resolve this based on the results of that.

In every paper comparing various leading LLMs, you see that the refusal rate of OpenAI's various GPTs is literally an order of magnitude higher than competitors. And what's more is that it continues to increase with newer releases of GPT. It has gotten to the point that it will refuse to answer questions about math and science even when explicitly prompted that it's own best guess is okay.

I feel like GPT-5 hype has gone way too far.

Related questions

Related questions