This market will resolve to YES if at least one verifiable case occurs where a person who was a U.S. citizen at the time (either by birth or naturalization) is deported from the United States before January 1, 2029.
The market will resolve to NO if no such deportation occurs before January 1, 2029.
A deportation case does not qualify if the individual has been denaturalized before deportation.
If a naturalized citizen commits fraud in the naturalization process but is deported while still recognized as a U.S. citizen, it will count.
A case where a qualifying individual is deported will resolve to YES even if a subsequent judicial order mandates that the individual be returned.
1,000People are also trading
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/25/us-citizen-deportation-donald-trump-00311631
I suspect that this market will resolve YES based off of this, but I’m interested in hearing thoughts from traders and I need to learn more about the case. I’ve closed the market in the meantime, and will re-open or resolve it when I am confident in the way to understand this case.
My current thoughts:
An American citizen, V.M.L. was almost certainly deported.
However, this might fall under the case I mentioned earlier, where deported parents willingly chose to take their children with them.
However, her father is also an American citizen, stayed in the US, and tried to prevent her from being deported.
I.C.E. contends that the mother wished to bring V.M.L. with her. However, the only proof of this is a handwritten note, which could well be plagiarized or related to a different case.
Judge Terry Doughty has scheduled a hearing on this case for May 16.
And how this market should resolve:
If the court or a higher court decides that V.M.L. was incorrectly deported, it will resolve YES.
If the note appears to be fake or the mother states that she wanted V.M.L. to remain in the US, then the market resolves YES.
If those do not happen, and I view the situation as being ultimately the same as the allowed cases, I will not resolve YES, and the market will be open.
If another case makes this resolve YES in the meantime, I will resolve YES for those cases.
I’d appreciate input on whether I am correctly understanding the case, and whether my criteria for handling it are reasonable.
@Marnix I’d resolve YES in that case, because it’s the thinnest flimsiest justification for letting them deport Americans. They might equally say that everywhere on Earth is ‘part of America’s natural property, so transporting an American anywhere is not deportation’. That’s just them changing the meaning of ‘deportation’, and I’m not inclined to follow that.
The Trump administration is arguing that they can deport American citizens
E.g., We saw a birthright US Citizen child deported with her parents and several siblings, some of which are also birthright citizens
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna196049
See also
“she, her parents and four of her siblings were detained at a Border Patrol checkpoint in Texas and were subsequently removed from the US to Mexico following the parents’ decision to take their children with them rather than separate,”
https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/15/us/parents-deported-mexico-daughter-cancer-treatment/index.html
@SusanneinFrance While despicable, the people who were actually deported were not citizens, and they merely took their citizen children with them. Like I said, it was a horrible thing to do, but not sufficient for this market.
@spiderduckpig Denaturalization does not count for this (ie. if a citizen is denaturalized and then deported, this does not resolve YES). Deporting a naturalized citizen that committed fraud in the naturalization process would count though - they are still a citizen.