As clarification, I am using my current net worth as of creating this question (Ṁ1,118) as the baseline. Doubling my net worth would be Ṁ2236 (now Ṁ2990, see update) or higher. If there is any point between the creation of this question and Feb 1st that my net worth reaches or exceeds that value, this question will resolve as YES. Otherwise, this question will resolve as NO on Feb 1st, EST.
P.S. I may miss a point. If you find it, please @ me and I will resolve when I can.
Also: I will, ofc, not be able to resolve at exactly 12:00 AM Feb 1st, but if my net worth reaches that point only after Feb 1st I will still resolve as NO.
To avoid conflict of interest, I will not bet on this market.
Update 2024-13-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Mana earned through any means (including streaks, push notifications, etc.) will count towards net worth
Purchased Mana will not count towards net worth
Update 2024-16-12 (PST) The target net worth has been adjusted to Ṁ2990 (original Ṁ2236 + Ṁ754) to account for received payments, as while received payments should not progress me towards the net worth goal, I am still allowed to use it to make profit (or loss). Instead of subtracting 754 from all values on my net worth graph (which would be a pain for all of us), I'll just raise the bar.
1,000
3.00@Gameknight Maybe you should stick to easier trades for now (e.g. sports, death markets, events that already happened)
@bagelfan I don't watch sports, I don't know what death markets are, and events that already happened result in 99% yes/no markets that I literally am not allowed to bet on anymore lol
@Gameknight Death markets: markets about the survival of a particular person (easy to calculate the probability with survival rates like from https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html). If the event already happened but you are quick enough you can sneak your bets in
@Gameknight You might want to stay away from self-resolving markets, not counting them you are up by a little bit.
Also, do payments from other users count?
@bagelfan I'd like to say yes just because it would be more of a pain to count that, but for the sake of fairness, let's say no, payments from other users do not count (because it is not net worth earned by me doing something). I'll just subtract 754 from datapoints.
@Gameknight to clarify: since this question is about net worth it also includes mana bonuses for streaks, enabling push notifications, etc. right?
@SisyphosDale Yes, it includes any Mana earned in any way. However, purchasing Mana will not count (and I would not purchase Mana regardless as I have no money).
@Gameknight Yeah that makes sense, thanks for clarifying. I already thought it was doable just on profit, but between streak bonuses and unique trader bonuses on this and other questions that makes me very optimistic.
I bet you could do it. I’m making about 400 profit a month on almost exclusively 5M and 10M trades, so even smaller accounts like us can get somewhere. I’m not particularly smart and don’t have special insight either.
I think it depends on how much you use manifold.
Probability also decreases if you make any large trades IMO, cause losing is especially discouraging. Slow and steady is my unsolicited advice.