Will I receive significant evidence that Paul Christiano is not legally bound by a mutual OpenAI NDA before EOY2024
➕
Plus
16
Ṁ2093
Jan 1
32%
chance

Significant evidence = first, second, or third-hand reports from people who I trust.

NDA = non-disparagement agreement, not non-disclosure agreement

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Ṁ1,000
and
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I will not bet in this market, so people don't fear I receive the info & steal their money (unless someone argues with this statement & claims it doesn't do much for investor confidence)

degrees of separation measured from Paul only? or Sam as well?

Any updates on this?

Have you gotten any evidence todate, significant or otherwise?

In general, it would be good if markets didn't include "not"s that reverse which is "yes" and which is "no".

@EliTyre Sorry about that! I agree, but I also forget :(

bought Ṁ30 YES

To be clear, this is specifically regarding a mutual non-disparagement agreement, right?

@AryanBhatt Correct, since OAI now claims it will no longer enforce its non-mutual NDAs.

@GarrettBaker Not saying this actually matters all that much, OAI is known to lie, but I'm economizing on market creation. You're welcome to make another about non-mutual NDAs, which I will def trade in.

This market is about whether he currently is, not whether he ever has been, correct?

[whoops, posting on LW's account]

I will not bet in this market, so people don't fear I receive the info & steal their money (unless someone argues with this statement & claims it doesn't do much for investor confidence)

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