By the end of 2029 will there be a UV light company worth $1 billion?
24
Ṁ1143
2029
24%
chance

Resolves YES if by the end of 2029 there's a $1b company focused on manufacturing UV lights; doesn't have to be the only thing it makes but the company's success has to be founded on UV lights. (UV lights are gaining traction for use in air disinfection.)

See: https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1575472179268898816

Idea for the market is based on a colleague's throwaway comment--let me know if phrasing is underspecified.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ25 NO

Even with the rise in infectious diseases in 2024 I think a $1BN company based in UV seems like a stretch for me.

bought Ṁ100 NO

Has there been any traction at all for these? When I first learned about this I expected these lights to become ubiquitous, especially in public transport, airports, etc. However, here we are years later and I haven't heard a single story about these getting deployed or a single advertisement or display in a store. Nobody offline I've mentioned these to even knew about it. It's quite disappointing

What is the $1b based on? Market cap? Valuation? Revenue? Profits?

As someone who has purchased these for my day job, I've not seen much low hanging fruit for innovation in the field. Basically every product is the same design, with the nicer ones coming with certain guarantees or special features most customers won't need or notice. This is coming from the commercial sector, so residential units may find some more success, but the business model lacks any sort of recurring revenue stream so I doubt that side as well. I think it is more likely that higher-end units, both in commercial and residential markets, simply have some cheap UV lights included from the lowest bidder and it's rarely considered past that point.