When will Manifold reach 100,000 Monthly active users?
Basic
22
Ṁ11k
2025
31%
Not before 2027
8%
Q4 2026 (Oct - Dec)
8%
Q3 2026 (Jul - Sep)
7%
Q2 2026 (Apr - Jun)
6%
Q1 2026 (Jan - Mar)
6%
Q1 2025 (Jan - Mar)
6%
Q4 2024 (Oct - Dec)
6%
Q3 2025 (Jul - Sep)
6%
Q4 2025 (Oct - Dec)
6%
Q2 2025 (Apr - Jun)
4%
Q3 2024 (Jul - Sep)
3%
Q2 2024 (Apr - Jun)
1.9%
Other
1.6%
Q1 2024 (Jan - Mar)

other = before 2024

Will look at the stat page. If it reads 100k, resolves to the relevant bucket.

I don't plan on doing detective work if it's manipulated. Having said that, if a considerable amount of traffic is fraudulent (e.g., 20%) I will possibly delay resolution to make necessary adjustments for blatant-bulk-manipulation. I'm not excluding alts, 10 person bot farms, whatever

If you manipulate this market by attracting users to the site, you may be eligible for a bounty! Let me know.

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Ṁ1,000
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where is the stat page?

@LegendaryFoatGucker now linked in description, my bad

Not before 2027

Unfortunately there aren’t 100,000 kids that go to @Conflux high school.

@BTE *aren’t yet 100,000

@Conflux I guess pretty soon you will be in college so maybe if you go to UCLA (doubtful you have any other public schools on your short list).

Not before 2027

Ok, consider this the "never" option. I've expanded until then. Other is now only representative of prior to 2024.. Hopefully that's not too annoying for anyone

@Gen I mostly just didn't anticipate such low expectations - at least that means there's mana for me to win!

@Gen What is the pathway to achieving this by Q4 2024? Like what is Manifold doing that makes this a possibility??

@BTE spending time & money on marketing. 100k monthly users is ~10x the current level so I don't think it's necessarily unattainable, just difficult. Who knows, maybe manifold.love will blow up!

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