Hang on, llama 3.1 is more than 1 billion dollars in terms of cost

Likely the most expensive model trained to date is PaLM, which cost ~$10-20M as per the analysis here: https://blog.heim.xyz/palm-training-cost/

Therefore this market is positing that (1) within the next 2yr a model 50-100x the price of the to-date most expensive model gets trained, and (2) the company that trained it open-sources that model.

#1 I could maybe see happening, but not #1 & #2 together