OpenAI Stock
Plus
14
Ṁ15122030
63%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves NO if they're largely irrelevant
Resolves YES if they are market leader or duopoly (eg with Deepmind, as it once seemed)
Resolution in 2025-2030 timeframe.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
(broken manifold too..:)
back to 19th century link technology—
Thesis: they’ll be first to everything but never ship good products, have zero moat, and are all mind-virus infected
(Also a certain executive has consistently midwit twitter takes)
DeepMind ships 10x the volume, Stability leverages open-source, and the labs have actual commercial people around vs. needing a thousand people to release one model per year
Will they even be talked about by 2028?
Related questions
Related questions
OpenAI Market Share
44% chance
Will Sam Altman receive a significant equity stake in OpenAI? (>= 3% of the company)
49% chance
Who will invest in OpenAI in 2024?
OpenAI goes public or announces plans to by end 2024
35% chance
Will OpenAI reach a valuation of $300B by mid-2026?
66% chance
Will OpenAI IPO by 2030?
32% chance
In what year will OpenAI have a $1 Trillion market cap?
Will OpenAI IPO by 2040?
30% chance
OpenAI stock
Ṁ302
AI stock [permanent]
65% chance