Will open-source AI win? (through 2028) | Manifold

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)

Plus

45

Ṁ2261

2029

35%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

In total output, real-world use, plus prestige (open labs attracting the best talent)

PROB resolution--2022 would have resolved ~70-80% YES

Based on informed (and uninformed) comments, search trends, random Twitter hive minding, etc.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

That's a very vague criteria. Open source definitely has better public perception but weaker models and it's likely to stay that way.

predicts YES

predicts YES

https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028), 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

Related questions

By the end of Q1 2025 will an open source model beat OpenAI’s o1 model?

+50% 1d76% chance

By the end of Q2 2025 will an open source model beat OpenAI’s o1 model?

+14% 1d76% chance

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Will OpenAI have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?

Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?

Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)

Which (if any) "big tech" companies will "open source" their AI models in 2024?

Will an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

Related questions

By the end of Q1 2025 will an open source model beat OpenAI’s o1 model?

Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?

By the end of Q2 2025 will an open source model beat OpenAI’s o1 model?

Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Which (if any) "big tech" companies will "open source" their AI models in 2024?

Will OpenAI have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Will an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?

Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules