Will open-source AI win? (through 2028) | Manifold

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)

Basic

41

Ṁ1.9k

2029

35%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

In total output, real-world use, plus prestige (open labs attracting the best talent)

PROB resolution--2022 would have resolved ~70-80% YES

Based on informed (and uninformed) comments, search trends, random Twitter hive minding, etc.

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That's a very vague criteria. Open source definitely has better public perception but weaker models and it's likely to stay that way.

predicts YES

predicts YES

https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither

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