1,000
3.00Can you edit the question name to "Will there be 20 bank failure in the US?"
I'll like to propose resolution criteria into description:
Resolves YES if there's 20 bank failures or more in the US in the period from May 3rd, 2023, to the end of 2024. Resolution source: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/
Based on the graph posted below, I'm guessing it's only about US banks, since I don't see Credit Suisse - that's a super important criteria to clarify.
This could really use a better definition of bank failure. Are we talking https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/? What about something like Silvergate Bank (winding down and liquidating, but not in FDIC receivership)?
For the record, since the author has not clarified, what I'm assuming for my predictions is that the question is about number of US bank failures according to https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list by the end of 2024. This is based on the author's comment "3 so far" which indicates that Credit Suisse and Silvergate Bank don't count.
Here's a market with clearer resolution criteria:
Showcasing this. Bank failures may be the most important econ news right now. If SVB contagion spreads then it will hurt the American and global economy. In the worst case, a lot of people will suffer, due to inflation, losing deposits or other distortions from bank centralization and regulation.
Manifold forecasts a lot of tech tail risks like AI, which is good, but I also want more markets forecasting black swans that more people care about. There are other markets about the bank failures but none showcased. I picked this one because it's near 50% and is short. Definitely check out the related markets too though.
@Sinclair What do you mean by "is short"? If you mean the length of the question description, I think that's a serious flaw, see my other comment about the ambiguities of this question. If you mean the duration of the market, it looks like this one runs until end of 2024 (although that is also not 100% clear).
