In which year will global warming reach 1.5 degrees Celsius?
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7
Ṁ818
2040
11%
2031
10%
2032
9%
2033
8%
2034
8%
2030
7%
2035
6%
2029
5%
2028
5%
Not in this century
4%
2026
3%
2037
3%
2025
3%
2038
3%
2036
3%
2040
3%
2039
3%
Later this century
3%
Other
3%
2027

This market will resolve according to the Global surface temperature chart on Wikipedia’s English page on Climate Change. Specifically, the market will resolve to the year in which the red line in the chart (’20-year-smoothing’) first reaches 1.5 degrees Celsius. This approach aligns with the IPCC definition of the 1.5 degree target. Should the chart be no longer available on Wikipedia, the market will resolve using another neutral source that tracks average long-term warming compared to pre-industrial temperatures.

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Following a simple linear extrapolation from the linked graph:

y_T = y_1 + (T - T_1) / ((T_1 - T_0) / (y_1 - y_0))

= 2024 + (1.5 - 1.25) / ((1.25 - 0.35) / (2024 - 1976))

= ~2037
with a margin of error of a few years to account for unexpected acceleration/deceleration

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