In which year will global warming reach 1.5 degrees Celsius?
Plus
7
Ṁ14562040
14%
2031
12%
2032
10%
2030
8%
2029
7%
2028
6%
Not in this century
5%
2026
4%
2025
4%
2037
3%
2038
3%
2036
3%
2040
3%
2034
3%
2039
3%
2035
3%
2033
3%
Later this century
3%
3%
2027
This market will resolve according to the Global surface temperature chart on Wikipedia’s English page on Climate Change. Specifically, the market will resolve to the year in which the red line in the chart (’20-year-smoothing’) first reaches 1.5 degrees Celsius. This approach aligns with the IPCC definition of the 1.5 degree target. Should the chart be no longer available on Wikipedia, the market will resolve using another neutral source that tracks average long-term warming compared to pre-industrial temperatures.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Climate change: In which month will the 30-year global warming trend first reach 1.37°C?
Climate change: In which month will the 30-year global warming trend first reach 1.38°C?
Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2025, according to Berkeley Earth?
50% chance
Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?
68% chance
Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2028, according to Berkeley Earth?
75% chance
Climate change: In which month will the 30-year global warming trend first reach 1.40°C?
Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2024, according to Berkeley Earth?
98% chance
Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?
56% chance
By 2050, how many degrees (C°) of global warming will there be relative to the 1851-1900 baseline?
Climate change: In which month will the 30-year global warming trend first reach 1.39°C?