Will discovery of the first room T+P superconductor lead to viable fusion in the year following the discovery ?
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5
Ṁ62
2040
30%
chance

Resolve N/A if there is no room T+P superconductor before 2040 or if viable fusion is confirmed before a superconductor is discovered.

  • Even if there is no apparent causality, if viable fusion is confirmed in the year following the research paper that marks the discovery of superconductor, will resolve YES.

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Nice market, but a lot of questions:

What if fusion happens first?

And what if fusion happens after the superconductor but there's no causality?

What day do you use to measure the discovery? Publication of first paper?

@SimoneRomeo Thanks, good questions. If fusion happens first, we're no more in the range of the question => N/A

If there is no apparent causality I will still consider this as a pass, as it would be hard in any case to prove the causality.

For dates, I will use publication of first result paper (or paper of first serious replication if the material is already published but finally show properties afterall )

@Guillaume mm.... I'm afraid it would be controversial to define fits as a "serious replication"

@SimoneRomeo I would personally use commercialization (first superconductor is sold on the market) as a milestone, but this could shift by itself the timeline by one year

@Guillaume btw, causation could be established if the fusion reactor actually make use of the superconductor

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