Will Chechenya be a sovereign state before 2040?
Mini
6
Ṁ1452040
19%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Chechenya joins the UN as a sovereign state, resolves as YES
If Chechenya is self-declared sovereign and has >90% of international recognition, resolves as YES
If Chechenya is self-declared sovereign and has <90% of international recognition, resolves as the percentage of countries that recognize its independence
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
At any point before start of 2050, will a country named Chechnya (or similar) be a member of the UN?
40% chance
Will any part of pre-2014 Russia territory become an internationally recognized independent state by the end of 2040?
40% chance
Will Ramzan Kadyrov remain the head of the Chechen Republic (Chechnya) by the end of 2024?
77% chance
Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?
47% chance
Will Russia annex either Abkhazia or South Ossetia before 2030?
35% chance
Will Russia control Grozny on Jan 1st 2033?
75% chance
Will Northern Cyprus be a sovereign state before 2040?
31% chance
Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?
31% chance
Will a major battle be fought in the Caspian Sea before 2040?
25% chance