Will a Cascade volcano erupt in the next 10 years?
Basic
3
Ṁ602033
48%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves to yes if there is Volcanic Explosivity Index 1 or greater (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_explosivity_index) eruption in the Cascade arc by Nov. 11, 2033. Any eruption within a rectangle defined by the points (41°N, 120°W) and (52°N, 127°W) will count towards resolution. I will use a consensus of reputable sources (e.g., USGS) to determine the VEI of an eruption.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a large volcanic explosion before 2027?
55% chance
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 5 or greater before 2035?
47% chance
When will the Yellowstone Supervolcano erupt next?
Will humans trigger a volcanic eruption by 2100?
40% chance
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 6 or greater before 2050?
34% chance
Will there be a volcanic eruption of Volcanic Explosivity Index 7 or greater before 2075?
22% chance
Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026?
22% chance
Will there be more than 30 New Volcano Eruptions in 2025?
62% chance
Will there be more than 30 New Volcano Eruptions in 2026?
72% chance
Will there be more than 30 New Volcano Eruptions in 2024?
82% chance