Apologize for the initial ambiguity in the language (I did not think people will actually trade on this).

Updated the question to: Will TikTok be banned in the US at the end of 2025?

The app is considered "banned in the US" if either of these hold true on Dec 31st:

1. Normal use of the app is not possible without using virtual private networks (or otherwise misrepresenting location)

2. Downloading/upgrading the app is not possible through both Google Play Store and Apple App Store

@HarveyHu changing “get banned in the US by the end of 2025” to “be banned at the end of 2025” completely changes resolution criteria!

Such behavior only can ensure that nobody will trade in your future markets.

It works now and it will not be banned will you resolve it?

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The app is no longer available in app store and cannot be opened

This could really use a definition of "banned". Unless specified otherwise, I think that only a fairly comprehensive ban should count: the app is no longer available via Google's or Apple's app stores, and existing installations no longer function while in the US.

But I could see an argument for "banned" including a whole spectrum of regulatory actions, some of which have no user-facing restrictions. For example, US based advertisers (i.e. TikTok's actual customers) could be barred from doing business with TikTok, while end users could still use the platform.

A clear definition before people place significant bets could head off a messy resolution.