20% chance. As per Anthropic's scaling policy here: https://www.anthropic.com/index/anthropics-responsible-scaling-policy ASL-3 is defined as: "ASL-3 refers to systems that substantially increase the risk of catastrophic misuse compared to non-AI baselines (e.g. search engines or textbooks) OR that show low-level autonomous capabilities." Anthropic commits to not deploying ASL-3 models 'if they show any meaningful catastrophic misuse risk under adversarial testing by world-class red-teamers (this is in contrast to merely a commitment to perform red-teaming).' Resolves to YES if in my best judgment this happened. I will put large weight on Anthropic's statements on this question, and on general consensus including polls, but will go my own way if I feel sufficiently strongly about it. Resolves to NO if in my best judgment this does not happen. (Resolves to a percentage if there is genuine uncertainty but the bar for doing this is high and I find this highly unlikely.) If a model is created but not released to at least a substantial outside beta testing group by the deadline, it does not count. I interpret for now 'low-level autonomous capabilities' as something that would tempt reasonable people to give the model real-world actual-stakes autonomous tasks for mundane utility purposes, with the expectation this was economically wise, or the ability to otherwise make money on its own, or similar. If Anthropic clarifies I will use their definition. No currently released system currently counts, including GPT-4, Claude-2 and Llama-2, barring very unexpected advancements in autonomous capability scaffolding on top of them, but in theory that could also do it. I reserve the right to modify the resolution details for clarity and intent.